These drills, part of the force’s annual training cycle, send a blunt message: Not only is the enemy’s psychological campaign baseless, but also the full scope of Iran’s defensive power remains deliberately unknown to the enemies.
Missiles roar from east to west of the country
According to Fars News Agency, citing field evidence and people’s eyewitness, missiles were fired from Khoramabad, Mahabad, Isfahan, Tehran, and Mashhad. Saberin News reported that drills are being conducted across the country. The range covers east to west of the country, showing off Iran’s diversity of missile bases and “missile cities” and the capability to launch several operations simultaneously.
This level of geographical dispersion sends a clear message to the enemy’s military think tanks: Iran’s missile structure is not centralized, but rather networked, layered, and designed around the principle of survivability. Under such conditions, any attempt at a preemptive strike would be met with operational complexity and unpredictable costs, especially as these exercises take place amid a regional media environment rife with speculation about a possible new attack on Iran. This timing only amplifies the deterrent impact of this display of power.
Message of secrecy: Enemy confused between drills and real operation
In recent days, there have been many controversies about moves by IRGC’s Aerospace Forces; moves that even the Israeli and Western intelligence failed to interpret, whether they are a preplanned exercise or a preparation for a preemptive strike by Iran.
First, Axios, citing three informed Israeli and American sources, reported that Tel Aviv officials had warned Washington that the movement of Iranian missile launchers could be a cover for a preemptive operation. A statement by a Zionist source that “the probability of an Iranian attack is less than 50 percent, but no one is willing to take the risk” speaks most clearly to the success of Iran’s strategy of strategic ambiguity, a core pillar of effective deterrence.
Within this framework, a diverse arsenal of ballistic missiles, from cruise missiles to next-generation hypersonic, remains the backbone of Iran’s deterrent strategy. In recent years, the Islamic Republic has worked to diversify the range, speed, accuracy, fuel type, and launch methods of its missiles, managing a balance of terror in a way that forces any adversary’s decision-making to be weighed against uncertainty and fear of uncontrollable consequences. The coincidence of timing of these exercises, alongside news of Benjamin Netanyahu’s upcoming visit to the US and the placing of Iran’s missile capabilities on the agenda, shows that this display of power is directly linked to ongoing diplomatic developments.
Nightmare of missile cities: War of narratives after 12-day war
Recent missile tests are coming as the IRGC’s missile cities have turned into one of the most scaring nightmares of the US and Israeli enemies in recent years.
Israeli security sources have claimed that after 12-day war, Tehran has lost part of its missile capabilities and has not yet restored its pre-war levels. They rely on completely unsubstantiated figures from undisclosed sources regarding the remaining number of missiles and launchers in an attempt to portray a diminished image of Iran’s military capabilities. Meanwhile, Iranian military sources have dismissed these claims as part of a psychological warfare campaign, emphasizing that the 12-day war utilized only a fraction of the armed forces’ defensive capacity. In fact, the IRGC reportedly employed older, soon-to-be-retired missile generations in its strikes, suggesting the conflict served, in their terms, more as an “inventory clearance” operation.
Statements from senior Iranian military officials, including their emphasis on the uninterrupted production of weaponry and active missile assembly lines, indicate that what Tel Aviv describes as “capability erosion” does not align with on-the-ground realities. Abolfazl Shekarchi, senior spokesman for Iran’s Armed Forces General Staff, stated on Sunday that following the 12-day war, “our production lines for powerful missiles have not halted for a moment.”
Furthermore, past experience has demonstrated that Iran’s underground missile cities are not only an operational asset but also a powerful psychological component, one that has consistently functioned as a chronic nightmare for attack planners in Tel Aviv and Washington. American and Israeli media have, in a series of reports, acknowledged that stockpiles of advanced interceptor missiles were severely depleted during the 12-day war, and the US will be unable to replenish them for the regime for many months.
I such context, recent drills of Tehran should be seen as a practical response to its enemies’ push to implicit weakness and erosion of Iranian armed forces. It is actually a response whose aim is redefinition of the equation and reminder of the point that any miscalculation can bring to Israel costs and consequences far heavier than those of the 12- day war.
Readiness in sea, air, and land under multi-layer deterrence
The Iranian missile drills should not be analyzed separate from the other military capabilities of the country. Along with missile launches, air defense, drone, ground, and naval units have been put on alert and operational training mode, something signaling that Iran’s is sporting a multi-layer deterrence doctrine. This military approach rests on the supposition that the future threats are combined and multifaceted and so response to them should take place in sea, land, and air.
In this context, strengthening the air defense network, enhancing detection and tracking capabilities, expanding the fleet of combat and reconnaissance drones, and maintaining naval readiness in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman are seen as complementary to missile capabilities. The message of comprehensive readiness is directed particularly at Israel and its principal backer, the United States, telling them that any aggression will be met not with a limited response, but with a multifaceted and costly reaction.
Overall, what was showcased by the IRGC drills was not a mere military exercise, but part of a clear strategic message: Iran’s missile capabilities not only are not weakened, but also are powerfully advancing and any illusion about possibility of repeat of a limited conflict can risk a larger, uncontrollable crisis.
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