Translated by Al-Ahed News
The “Israeli” entity currently finds itself at a highly complex crossroads. Despite the “bear hug” of support it is receiving from the Trump administration in the United States, hesitation, indecision and an obsession with political and media maneuvering are pushing “Israel” toward entanglement—particularly when it comes to its own vision of “national” security.
According to journalist Avi Ashkenazi, a writer for “Maariv”, the US decision to enter negotiations with Iran over the nuclear issue is a logical one. “In any military operation or war,” he writes, “there’s only one certainty: how it starts. But you never know how it will end, or what exit strategy might be available.”
Trump is already fighting on multiple fronts—most notably, a global trade war spanning Japan, Europe and even neighboring Canada. He is also waging a domestic battle against immigration and seems intent on restoring the US’s role as the world’s tough enforcer—the kind you wouldn’t want to run into in a dark alley.
Ashkenazi notes that Trump fully understands the risks: an attack on Iran would likely provoke retaliatory strikes on oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf, as well as on American interests in Iraq, West Asia and the Gulf region. He also knows that despite the strong support Netanyahu’s government is receiving, there has been no meaningful progress on the Gaza front or prisoner negotiations. The “Israeli” entity takes one step forward and two steps back.
On one hand, there is no serious momentum toward negotiations. On the other, as seen on Tuesday, the military campaign in Gaza has not produced its intended outcomes. Hamas shows no signs of being cornered or weakened. In fact, due to the lack of sustained military pressure, it now appears to be recovering from the initial blow delivered by the “Israeli” Air Force and “Shin Bet” around three weeks ago.
When Prime Minister Netanyahu returns to Ben Gurion Airport, he will face his usual domestic challenges: testifying in court, dismissing the “Shin Bet” chief, firing the attorney general, holding his coalition together and more. But he will also need to sit down for a critical security assessment.
On the table are several dramatic and urgent issues:
- How will “Israel” participate in the negotiations with Iran and communicate its red lines to the US administration?
- How can “Israel” avoid direct conflict with Turkey in Syrian airspace or on the ground?
- What is the path forward regarding potential negotiations between “Israel” and Hamas?
Ashkenazi concludes: “Israel” must choose a path. Will it use the holiday period to call up tens of thousands of reservists and launch a large-scale military operation aimed at weakening Hamas, forcing it to the negotiating table and securing the release of captives? Or will it continue to avoid making any definitive decision—military or political?
For now, the American “bear hug” still gives “Israel” some breathing room and allows it to maneuver on multiple fronts. But this tight embrace may soon become a straitjacket, paralyzing both military action and political strategy.
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