Shaden Ayoub
Source: Al Mayadeen English
"Israel" will have to think long and hard about waging a war on Lebanon in 2024 and beyond. It had better move with caution, because one wrong move could spell irreparable damage.
Among the Lebanese, there is a tendency to envision a future potential Lebanon-"Israel" war resembling the previous 2006 Lebanon-"Israel" war and the massive destruction that it left as a result. The 2006 war was tragic, to say the least, and the numbers of casualties in Lebanon were simply incomparable to the casualties that "Israel" incurred as a result. More than 1,100 Lebanese civilians were killed, over 4,410 more were wounded, not to mention the severe damage to infrastructure in several major Lebanese districts, including Beirut – Lebanon’s Capital, home to a diverse population of Lebanese civilians. In comparison however, in "Israel", a grand total of 160 Israelis were killed, and 120 of those were IOF soldiers.
With respect to the 2006 war and the enormous casualty deficit, a future Lebanon-"Israel" war would be virtually incomparable. A lot has changed in 18 years, and it is undeniable that Hezbollah’s military capabilities have grown tremendously. We already know that Hezbollah’s manpower is at an all-time high. We already know that Hezbollah has gained valuable battlefield experience in its war against terrorism during the infamous Syrian war. We also know that Hezbollah has obtained hundreds of thousands of highly advanced weaponry and military equipment.
As of recently, some analysts have even stated that Hezbollah now possesses over one million short- and long-range rockets and missiles. But the most underrated new capability that Hezbollah has recently obtained is its air capabilities. This is a very significant advancement and hasn’t been covered nearly enough by the media. The Israeli regime is fully aware of the difficulties it faces under Hezbollah’s newfound air capabilities, and the Israeli media has done an award-winning job at concealing this from the Israeli public and sweeping it under the rug.
To be clear, one of the major reasons Lebanon incurred significantly more damage than "Israel" in 2006 is because "Israel" had air superiority over Hezbollah. To date, "Israel" has an estimated 339 combat-capable aircraft, including an estimated 309 fighter ground attack jets. In 2006, Hezbollah didn’t have any significant air capabilities, and as a result, "Israel" had the upper hand in that sense.
In 2024 however, for the first time in its history, Hezbollah has obtained anti-air missiles and has admittedly been manufacturing its very own Lebanese-made drones, aka "The Hodhod". As of recently, these drones have reached deep into "Israel", and a large number of these drones have successfully reached their targets and returned undetected. More to the point, what use are "Israel’s" extremely expensive, highly advanced, combat-capable aircraft when Hezbollah can now shoot them down with inexpensive weapons? If Hezbollah manages to undermine "Israel's" air superiority through its air defense systems, then this would be the final nail in the coffin for "Israel's" celebrated and much-touted advanced aircraft.
To add insult to injury, "Israel" has foolishly invested tens of billions of dollars into its military air capabilities, and heavily relies on them to function. Throughout "Israel’s" history with Lebanon, admittedly, "Israel" has always had that advantage. But gone are those days. This is a major reason as to why "Israel" has refrained from engaging in a full-scale war with Hezbollah so far.
Also, unlike in 2006, Hezbollah now has the ability to target any part of occupied Palestine, which is also a very significant development. In 2006, Hezbollah had limitations as to which areas of occupied Palestine it could reach, putting it at a major disadvantage (plot twist: Hezbollah still won the 2006 war).
The Israeli regime and all its factions, including Netanyahu government and the IOF are very well-aware of how costly a war with Lebanon would be on "Israel", hence why it’s still playing tit-for-tat with Hezbollah even despite all of the Israeli "red lines" Hezbollah has allegedly crossed.
If a full-blown war were to break out, it would look a lot different and would arguably make 2006’s war look like child's play. First and foremost, "Israel" would probably target a much larger range of Hezbollah soldiers and infrastructure, rather than civilians. This, obviously, is not from the goodness of "Israel’s" heart, but rather because it is well aware that the targeting of Lebanese civilians and civilian infrastructure will be matched with the targeting of Israeli settlers and infrastructure, a price "Israel" cannot afford to pay.
"Israel" has successfully lured millions of settlers over the years and has promised them security, knowing very well that putting them in danger could very well result in the departure of millions of its settlers, in which case the majority hold dual citizenship. And without its citizens, "Israel" has no ground to stand on with regards to its existence.
The 2006 war was tragic, and Lebanon suffered irreparable one-sided damage. But gone are the days where Israeli aircrafts can roam freely in Lebanese airspace. Gone are the days when "Israel" can cause massive destruction in Beirut while maintaining calm in Tel Aviv. And perhaps most notably, gone are the days when "Israel" had air superiority and a military advantage over Lebanon’s Hezbollah. "Israel" will have to think long and hard about waging a war on Lebanon in 2024 and beyond. It had better move with caution, because one wrong move could exact an irreversible and costly price on Tel Aviv, and beyond.
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