After months of political activities, the candidate registration was opened on March 19 and Muharrem İnce from Homeland Party, Sina Ogan from Atta coalition, current President Recep Tayyip Erdogan from Justice and Development Party, Dogu Perincek from Patriotic Party, Ahmet Ozal from Turkish Coalition, and Kemal Kilicdaroglu from the opposition coalition known as ‘six-party table’ announced their intention to run for president.
The Supreme Election Council on Sunday ratified candidacy of Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu. The council stated that it has reviewed the nomination applications submitted by political parties until March 23 within the framework of the timetable set for the presidential and parliamentary elections, and based on its statement, documents submitted by Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu were complete. The final list of approved candidates is to be published by March 31.
Erdogan is running for president for the third time and Kilicdaroglu has gained support from his coalition after a month of consultations and political work. The main competition will be between these two figures. Erdogan runs for presidency for a third term, but his rival has also taken advantage of his weaknesses in recent months and managed to increase his chances of winning the May 14 elections. The country is heading to the elections while the economic crisis and the recent devastating earthquake have made life difficult for tens of millions of citizens and unleashed criticism to Erdogan and the ruling party.
What do polls say?
Like past elections, it is sensitive to examine the conditions of parties, a job poll institute are rushing to do.
Although until last month all poll results suggested Erdogan’s victory, in recent days the scales have been tipped in Kilicdaroglu’a favor. In a recent poll conducted by ORC, the opposition leader has the edge over Erdogan with 52 percent of votes. Erdogan came second with 44 percent. Polls by Turkiye Rapuro and Eksi appeared to give 55 percent of the votes to Kilicdaroglu and 45 percent to Erdogan. In a poll by Muck, 46.5 percent of the voters said they will vote to Kilicdaroglu and 42.4 percent favored Erdogan. 7.7 percent said they were undecided and 3.4 percent chose other candidates. According to this poll, in case of a runoff, Kilicdaroglu will secure 53.5 percent of votes and Erdogan 39.7 percent. Unilium polls institute suggested victory of the ruling Justice and Development Party against the opposition.
Optimar poll institute whose 2014 and 2018 polls and 2017 referendum results were close to real ones suggested that Erdogan will win 47.4 percent over his rival Kilicdaroglu who will secure 45.3 percent. Another poll institute, Gnar, suggested that Erdogan’s vote will be 52.3 percent while Kilicdaroglu’s will be 47.7 percent.
Given these polls, the opposition leader has a greater chance of victory in the upcoming elections, but since the results are continuously changing, there is possibility of changes at the level of popularity of the main rivals.
Rivals trade blames
To add to their victory chances, Turkish presidential candidates are trying to exploit the weaknesses of their opponents. In the past year, Kilicdaroglu tried hard to damage Erdogan’s popularity and pave the way for his victory by riding on Turkey’s economic crisis and rampant inflation, and in the past two months, he took advantage of the terrible earthquake to criticize the government. He accused Erdogan’s government of incompetence in managing the crisis and said that in the past two decades, Erdogan had not prepared the country for earthquake to reduce the number of casualties with resistant construction in the cities. The opposition leader even blamed the recent flood in Sanliurfa in southeast of the country on the government to provoke public opinion against the president.
In the foreign policy, too, Kilicdaroglu made himself clear, highlighting Erdogan’s weaknesses. In his recent speech, he threatened the migrants and refugees and vowed strict policy should he win the presidential race. If elected, he said, he will send back home “our Syrian siblings” without leaving a stain of racism on the Turkish nation.
“We have to give back our streets and neighbourhoods to their owners. However, we have to do this sensitively, so as not to stigmatise our nation with racism. We are working on it.... We do not prejudge any country or any foreign citizen, but we want to live freely in our country and we do not want the population structure of Turkey to change,” he added.
He also promised to turn Turkey into the strongest country in the region and Black Sea.
Though blaming Erdogan for crises rocking the country, the opposition leader has not presented any solutions to them. Presently, economic boost and services to millions affected by the earthquake are top priorities for the people and grey voters have not yet made their minds for the voting and are weighing up the conditions to decide for whom they should vote. Erdogan revealed his plans and promises for the next five years, but his rival has not yet offered plans or solutions.
On the other hand, Erdogan, who finds his presidency at stake, has started his election campaign from earthquake-hit regions to get them to his side. He once again promised reconstruction in visits to these areas.
The government is introducing other cards to secure Erdogan’s win. It announced plans to start tests of domestically-developed tanks from April. Very likely, Erdogan intends to paint these tanks as a great government achievement and claim to have put Turkey in the club of big military powers. He is hopeful that ambitious military projects will increase his popularity among the nationalists and conservative religious people. He already unveiled new generations of drones, fighter jets, and unmanned frigates. In recent weeks, Erdogan also sought a détente with Syria with Russian mediation and he may unveil this card in the run up to the elections.
Though in the past two decades Erdogan has played a major role in the country’s economic and political developments, the current economic and social conditions are not in his favor and as poll results show, he will possibly be shown the door after 20 years in rule. Still, he has always shown that he is the man of hard days, and it remains to see if he can mobilize public opinion in his favor or lose the power to his rival.
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