China is the greater threat against the US

Mark L. Haas, International Relations professor at Duquesne University

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Before Ukraine war, some people were predicting that Russia would eventually come to America’s side. From their vantage point, even though Putin's regime and the United States are very different ideologically, the rise of China was going to scare both of them, and they would eventually gravitate together. I thought it highly unlikely then.

What happened afterwards is that the Ukraine war just made it unthinkable and inconceivable. The war, in fact, is just going to reinforce the divide between liberals and authoritarians. And in all likelihood, the greater threat against the US is China because it is so much more powerful than Russia.

Obviously, there is the danger of escalation in Ukraine, and it's increasing, where the US and Russia could get involved in direct hostilities. That's kind of a wild card there. But, I still think that's little bit, especially over the middle term, if you define middle term over the next decade or so.

Moreover, there's also a point of contention in the US-China relations, and that's Taiwan. It is an area that's difficult to resolve, and it's not clear that the status quo will stay the same, based on what President Xi has said about China's ambitions there. We need to notice this flashpoint for conflict.

Finally, there is ideological differences which make a spiral of hostility pretty easily where President Biden is defining the world in terms of democracy versus autocracy, and President Xi is clearly saying the West is on decline in addition to expressing fears of liberal revolution in China. Therefore, I think there are the sparks of this threat that could spiral into open hostility.