As global powers compete to shape the new order, Saudi Arabia is banking on trillion-dollar diplomacy to cement its place at the table and ensure Washington keeps taking its calls.
The Cradle
Trump, ever the showman, jumped in: “Are you telling me $600 billion will become $1 trillion?”
“Definitely,” replied the crown prince, "because what we are signing will facilitate that."
It was a dollar-drenched Muppet Show of political theater. But behind the spectacle lies a serious recalibration of mutual interests, urgent needs, and midterm strategies between two powers undergoing internal upheaval.
Money before missiles
One party is the US, still clinging to superpower status and determined to uphold its unipolar dominance through financial, military, and technological might. The other is Saudi Arabia, petro-dollar-rich and increasingly assertive, maneuvering to become a central West Asian power.
Leading the former is a real estate mogul-turned-president who campaigned on “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) and believes greatness lies in industrial revival, funded by foreign capital and sealed with a handshake. Leading the latter is a crown prince, a de facto ruler who seized power in a 2017 palace coup and has shown few qualms about rewriting the kingdom’s rulebook.
Together, they bring cash to the table – lots of it. A trillion-dollar package, equivalent to nearly four times Turkiye's annual exports, isn't spare change. For Trump, who dreams of a reindustrialized America, this is the jackpot.
But the cash is only the surface story. Both states are charting their futures, and the road ahead is winding, treacherous, and carved into the cliffs of global power shifts.
The cunning prince with a reformist fire
MbS may be the most audacious, cunning, and visionary Saudi leader in modern history. He has a taste for reform, a tolerance for risk, and a keen sense of timing. As regional power maps are redrawn, Riyadh is leveraging its assets with precision.
From Turkiye to Egypt to the UAE, MbS has held his own in regional power contests. But he’s not just courting Washington. Riyadh is deepening ties with Russia and China, flirting with BRICS membership, joining Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summits as a dialogue partner, and balancing quiet relations with Israel.
At a time when Iran faces sustained pressure, MbS is steadily expanding his regional footprint. He's even opened the door to nuclear talks with Pakistan.
He knows that in today’s geopolitical turbulence, the state that masters swing-state diplomacy without bleeding will walk away with the prize.
This is what underpins the trillion-dollar deal. But to call it a purely strategic or diplomatic play would miss the point. There are tangible returns.
Following the landmark agreements, Trump elevated Saudi Arabia to “major non-NATO ally” status. A new strategic defense pact expanded US military access, committed Riyadh to footing American defense costs, and cleared the way for major arms sales – including F-35s and 300 tanks.
Preparing for post-oil survival
These are political and military gains. But MbS is also driven by a transformative vision: to lift the kingdom out of its “oil-rich Arab state” identity and into the ranks of West Asia’s leading powers.
He knows the hydrocarbon billions won’t last forever. Watching the UAE position itself for decades as West Asia’s Singapore through finance, real estate, and global trade, MbS is now determined to make Saudi Arabia a central player in the new economy.
‘Vision 2030’ and the Public Investment Fund
After years of massive outbound foreign investments through various state vehicles, MbS is now pivoting inward – channeling capital domestically and drawing western investment to fund the kingdom’s “Vision 2030” economic transformation.
Vision 2030 is ambitious, but the Public Investment Fund (PIF) is facing liquidity constraints. Oil prices are soft. OPEC production limits are biting. And megaprojects like NEOM have drained tens of billions.
Despite Riyadh’s image of wealth, the cash pipeline is tight. Now, the kingdom is eyeing sectors like AI, green energy, logistics, and IT.
Washington rides the wave
The Trump administration is pleased. A White House statement titled “Strengthening Our Strategic Partnership” described the deals as building directly on Trump’s “highly successful” May visit to Riyadh, during which the Saudis pledged $600 billion in investments.
Now, the crown prince has announced plans to raise that to $1 trillion.
Agreements include a Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement, advancements in critical mineral cooperation, and an AI Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). The White House emphasized that these agreements reflect the Trump administration’s “America First” approach – securing economic leadership while protecting US interests.
Nuclear energy: The crown jewel
The nuclear agreement is especially significant. The US and Saudi Arabia signed a “Joint Declaration on the Completion of Negotiations on Civil Nuclear Energy Cooperation” – a legal framework for a decades-long, multibillion-dollar partnership.
It confirms US companies as preferred partners and pledges strict non-proliferation compliance. An earlier MoU signed by US Energy Secretary Chris Wright outlined cooperation on reactor tech, uranium mining, waste management, and nuclear safety.
One unresolved question: will the deal allow uranium enrichment? That detail remains opaque.
Under former US president Joe Biden, Saudi nuclear ambitions were tied to recognizing Israel and joining the Abraham Accords. Trump has delinked the two. Some observers say enrichment may be included and predict that a Section 123 Agreement will go to Congress.
AI: The new oil
Of all the sectors involved, artificial intelligence (AI) may see the largest inflows. The AI MoU grants Saudi access to American systems while shielding US technology from foreign interference. The aim is to secure American leadership in global AI innovation.
It looks viable – if Saudi Arabia can build the infrastructure, labor, and deployment capacity for tens of thousands of GPUs. These chips are the backbone of AI systems.
Deals already in motion
Some agreements are already in place. At the US–Saudi Investment Forum in Washington, PIF-backed AI firm “Humain” announced partnerships with major US tech companies, including xAI, Cisco, AMD, and Qualcomm.
For these firms, the deals solve three core problems: funding, land, and cheap energy.
Elon Musk’s xAI and Humain will build a massive 500-megawatt (MW) data center in Saudi Arabia – xAI’s first large-scale project outside the US. Its Grok chatbot will be deployed across the kingdom. The center will run on Nvidia chips.
Saudi IT Minister Abdullah Alswaha announced a 100 MW data center for Amazon Web Services, also powered by Nvidia infrastructure. Riyadh plans to deploy and manage 150,000 AI accelerators.
Data centers are the foundation of the AI economy. No surprise that global investment is surging. McKinsey predicts $7 trillion in global data infrastructure investment by 2030. For this, AI companies are looking beyond borders – and Saudi Arabia, with its capital, land, and energy, is a natural partner. The kingdom has already invested $21 billion into data centers.
Disrupting China’s mineral dominance
Saudi Arabia wants to play a decisive role in securing and refining the minerals that fuel the AI economy. The US is currently lagging far behind China in mining and refining critical inputs.
China controls 92 percent of rare-earth processing and has invested $900 billion in frontier tech over the past decade – three times the US amount.
To counter this, the US and Saudi Arabia unveiled a Critical Minerals Framework. MP Materials will partner with the Pentagon and Saudi mining giant Maaden to build a rare earth refinery in the kingdom.
Saudi Arabia is believed to hold the fourth-largest rare earth reserves in the world, along with major uranium and other critical mineral deposits. This could help Washington cut dependence on Russia, which until recently supplied 30 percent of US uranium imports.
The oil giant’s green energy pivot
Riyadh is also embracing green energy as a strategic sector. Alongside expanding oil and gas production, it has invested heavily in renewables like solar and wind. Today, the kingdom is among the fastest-growing solar markets.
The AI sector’s vast energy demands, rising desalination needs, and a desire to export rather than consume hydrocarbons are accelerating the push toward nuclear energy.
But does the cash stack up?
Despite the fanfare, financial insiders are skeptical. PIF’s real liquidity may be far lower than advertised. While the fund claims $1 trillion in assets, much of that is illiquid and difficult to sell.
Some insiders claim PIF reps are warning global investors that future allocations will be limited. Others say the fund plans to shift toward traditional instruments like stocks and bonds. The goal: double the fund’s value to $2 trillion in five years. But how much of that will come from investment returns – and how much from the Saudi state – is unclear.
Lobbyists, hawks, and evangelicals push back
Regardless, Riyadh will find the money – whether by stretching the timeline, tapping other overseas petro-dollar funds, or nudging royal family members to cough up.
But unease is growing in the US. Pro-Israel lobbyists are sounding alarms. Security hawks are questioning Saudi reliability. Millions of Islamophobic evangelicals are uncomfortable – and they’re key to Trump’s voter base.
To appease them, Trump may delay some elements.
Riyadh may also face increased pressure to join the Abraham Accords. When asked about normalization with Israel, MbS gave a cautious “yes” but added, “We want to be part of the Accords, but we also want to ensure a pathway to a two-state solution.”
If Washington forces a clearer commitment, it could backfire. Riyadh already has no shortage of enemies in the region – especially as the UAE's maneuvers in Yemen and Sudan unsettle the regional balance.
Multilateralism isn’t easy
Riyadh's greatest challenge may be sustaining its multilateral foreign policy while remaining a top US partner. It eyes BRICS, engages with the SCO, fends off rivals, and pushes modern reforms in a Sharia-ruled state.
Swinging gives leverage – but in a region where alliances shift overnight, swinging too far risks collapse.
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