By Al Ahed Staff, Agencies
A landmark analysis by one of Germany’s leading demographic research institutions indicates that the true Palestinian death toll from “Israel’s” genocidal war on Gaza is far higher than earlier official figures suggested.
According to a detailed study by researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, more than 100,000 Palestinians have been martyred, now entering its third year, Die Zeit reported on Monday.
“We will never know the exact number of dead. We are only trying to estimate as accurately as possible what a realistic order of magnitude might be,” said Irena Chen, co-leader of the project.
The research team’s calculations place the number of Palestinians killed during the first two years of the conflict between 99,997 and 125,915, with a median estimate of 112,069. Their analysis incorporated data from the Gaza Ministry of Health, an independent household survey and death notifications collected from social media.
Until now, the only official statistics came from Gaza’s Health Ministry, which documented 67,173 deaths during the first two years. Die Zeit noted there is no evidence of statistical manipulation by the ministry, but multiple studies increasingly indicate that the real toll is far higher, with thousands of victims never formally recorded — particularly those buried under rubble.
Because many hospitals were forced to halt regular functions due to “Israeli” bombardment, the ministry has relied heavily on death reports submitted by family members, which are then reviewed by a verification panel. However, these numbers cannot capture the many Palestinians who remain missing beneath collapsed buildings.
The Max Planck researchers also examined the demographic composition of the casualties. Their findings suggest that 27 percent of those martyred are children under 15, while nearly 24 percent are women. The team further assessed the impact of the war on life expectancy in Gaza.
Before the conflict, life expectancy stood at 77 years for women and 74 for men. For 2024, projections have collapsed to 46 years for women and 36 for men, a devastating drop that reflects the catastrophic conditions civilians continue to endure.
The researchers warned that if the conflict continues at current levels, Palestinians may be left with these severely reduced life spans as the grim new norm — underscoring the accelerating humanitarian crisis.
Meanwhile, Palestine’s ambassador to the United Nations, Riyad Mansour, told the Security Council on Monday that Palestinians in Gaza continue to suffer fatalities and suffocating restrictions on humanitarian aid despite the ceasefire. He stressed that Palestinians “welcomed the ceasefire more than anyone else,” but continue to be killed and maimed.
Mansour reported that 1,000 Palestinians have been martyred or injured since the ceasefire took effect on October 10, adding that “every single day, two Palestinian children are killed by ‘Israel’. Nothing can justify that.”
He warned that the ceasefire has repeatedly come close to collapse, emphasizing that the US — which brokered the deal — must intervene at critical moments to prevent a breakdown. He called for the truce to be made permanent and for a complete “Israeli” withdrawal from Gaza, stressing that there must be no occupation, no annexation, and no partition of the territory.
Mansour concluded that Palestinian independence and what he described as a genuine two-state framework remain the only viable path to a lasting peace.
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