Washington’sincomplete approach of understanding Iran

Consequently, it is not expected that US efforts to achieve regime change, build a compliant Iran, erode social cohesion, weaken public trust, and widen political and economic divides in Iran will be successful in the short term.

Samyar Rostami

Since the beginning of the new phase of confrontation with Iran, the Trump administration has suffered from a kind of ambiguity and confusion in defining its objectives. The absence of a coherent and clear strategy for the recent conflict with Iran also has been evident.

The Origins of Misunderstanding and Distorted Perception of Reality

For decades, an important part of American strategies and research on Iran was based on traditional oriental studies, classical regional studies, and cultural observations from outside of Iranian society .

“The gap and challenges in understanding Iran” is also related to the quality of the cognitive infrastructure of the American national and party centers and institutes.

In fact, many decisions, pressures, and wars are made based on inaccurate images, which sometimes lead to the defeat or the consequences and multidimensional results of the war

the way of interpreting the changes in institutions and centers is effective on the quality of talks and attitudes.

In the past year, Iran has faced a series of internal challenges. But many American officials and analysts mistakenly considered Iran to be much weaker and more vulnerable. In fact, the gap in data has caused some of the American analyses and perceptions of Iranian society to be inaccurate.

In this approach, sometimes small signs are interpreted as too large, or a large part of the information is ignored .

Despite the technological changes, academic growth, expansion of the use of digital media, and the high intelligence and activism of Iranians, Iran has also become a multi-voiced network.

But there is a gap between Iran’s social reality and American data for interpretation .

Certainly, if the image that is made of the Iranian society is not consistent with the real developments of society, the inconsistency between the level of analysis and the level of reality increases the possibility of misunderstanding. Also, although new data about Iranian society has increased, it is interpreted in the form of past models, or the models are Western or partisan or anti-Iranian.

In fact, instead of old, limited, and single-source data, accurate understanding of Iranian society requires diverse, up-to-date, and multi-source data. Also, apart from the format of cultural and civilizational descriptions, variables such as security, technology, risk, and geopolitical analyses are important in better understanding the behavior of Iranian society.

Iran today is a multi-layered and multi-voiced society. Iranians’ intelligence, creativity, and ability to act have caused Iranian society to act proactively or even contrary to America’s expectations.

Despite the existence of some economic and social dissatisfactions in Iran, “Iranian national identity” and “combating foreign interference” serve as important red lines among Iranians.

In another dimension, the strong historical and social structure, resilience in the thousands of years of Iran’s history are prominent.

In fact, Iran’s resilience towards its enemies is a multifaceted phenomenon. Iran’s resilience and the system’s ability to resist, absorb, adapt, and quickly recover in dealing with threats, sanctions, political and military pressures, and maintaining internal stability and security are prominent.

In many periods, ideological connection has been able to act as a social capital and unite people. In the past year, the government structure in Iran has played an important role in managing crises and maintaining resilience, and has quickly made decisions and taken necessary measures to deal with threats.

Tehran has been determined to not weaken the country’s ability to face external pressures. The government’s efforts to reduce generational and social gaps, reform structures, promote social and economic justice, and strengthen the relationship between the government and the people are also important in order to ensure resilience against threats.

Also, the Nowruz message of Ayatollah Seyed Mojtaba Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Revolution, was the slogan of national security and national unity in the shadow of a resistive economy .

A New Stage of Confrontation with the US in West Asia

America has started a new confrontation with Iran in the West Asian region. But America’s failure in the Vietnam War (1955-1975), despite its technological superiority and high military power, without understanding the local realities and attention to the identity and native components of the people, did not bring victory.

Unlike Vietnam, Iran has a unique position and wide strategic depth in West Asia, with access to the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman, and the Strait of Hormuz. Among the other differences between Iran and Vietnam is indigenous and advanced military power. Iran has the indigenous knowledge of producing ballistic missiles, air defense systems, the cycle of rebuilding combat power, and producing military equipment with low costs and high firepower and deterrence power.

Conclusion

It seems that Washington’s understanding of the population of 90 million people, geographical area, layered defense structure, and morale of the people of Iran has been wrong until now.

An accurate understanding of Iranian society requires attention to the use of diverse sources, avoiding a single narrative, paying attention to accurate data, getting rid of analytical stereotypes, and considering the dynamic human mind.

Certainly, the image of American analyses of Iranian society is not consistent with today’s changing reality. This approach then transferred to the level of policymaking and American politicians and officials.

In fact, many decisions, pressures, and wars are made based on inaccurate images, which sometimes lead to the defeat or the consequences and multidimensional results of the war .

In wars of attrition, the outcome is not determined by the first attack. It seems that the power of resilience, national cohesion, and sense of common belonging of Iranian society will play a vital role in facing foreign threats. With the passage of five weeks, Iranians have become more united in terms of national unity. Also, they even prepare themselves for a long and holy war .

Considering the targeting of economic, energy, non-military, urban, and cultural heritage infrastructures, it appears that a significant portion of the Iranian protesters and critics have also shifted towards greater support for the government in the face of foreign attack.

Consequently, it is not expected that US efforts to achieve regime change, build a compliant Iran, erode social cohesion, weaken public trust, widen political and economic divides in Iran will be successful in the short term.

Samyar Rostami, а political observer and senior researcher in international relations