Turkey as an Emerging Energy Hub: Ambitions vs. Reality

Turkey aims to become a key energy hub through alternative pipelines bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, but most projects remain stalled.

Taut Bataut

“In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity” (Sun Tzu)

The ongoing US-Iran war in the Middle East has resulted in the disruption of global oil and gas supplies. The shocks are heavy, and the repercussions are inevitable. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has choked the world’s energy veins. This situation has compelled the regional entities to search for alternative trade routes to the Strait of Hormuz. And Turkey is no doubt the central player in this regard. As a Eurasian country, Turkey could provide suitable energy transits to the world, bypassing the Hormuz volatility. Since the inception of the war, Turkey has been promoting the idea of constructing additional pipelines.

Mother of All Crises

As a Eurasian country, Turkey has multiple options to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, but either the regional entities or resource constraints have diminished the Turkish dream

Turkish officials are now entitling the Hormuz dilemma as the ‘Mother of all Crises.’ According to Ankara’s Ambassador to Damascus, Nuh Yilmaz noted, “Turkey is now a major player because its current energy infrastructure is operational. Turkey is presently the safest, quickest, least expensive, and most reliable route. The energy distribution now traveling via the Strait of Hormuz or the Suez Canal may reach a point where a larger proportion is allocated to Turkey.” Thus, its pivotal geographic position and the presence of vast natural resources in the Middle East have made the centrality of Turkey inevitable.

Emerging Energy Architecture

A. Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline

This initiative targets gas exportation from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan via the Caspian Sea that will eventually be delivered to Europe via Turkey. Turkmenistan is an important exporter of gas, with a potential of 80 billion cubic meters per year. Turkmenistan has some of the biggest gas fields in the world, with the Galkynysh Gas Field being one of them. This Turkmen gas would be carried via a 300 km long pipeline in the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan. Then, the already existing energy corridors, such as the South Caucasus Pipeline, Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline, and Trans-Adriatic Pipeline, will be utilized to access the European markets.

B. Qatar-Turkey Pipeline

This project, envisioned in 2009, proposed a gas pipeline from Qatar to Europe via Turkey. The South Pars gas facility, which is the world’s largest gas facility and jointly monitored by Iran and Qatar, is central to this architecture. From this facility, the Qatari natural gas would reach its Ras Laffan field, from where it will be connected to the Nabucco Pipeline in Turkey via Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Syria, reaching the European markets. Several officials of Turkey believe that after the fall of the Syrian administration under Assad, this pipeline project could again be initiated.

C. Iraq-Turkey Channel

It has its origin in the Kirkuk region of Iraq up to Ceyhan, Turkey. The purpose of this project was to produce 1.6-1.8 million barrels of crude oil per day. This pipeline is in the northern part of Iraq. Southern Iraq, in particular Basra, is also a major oil producer, which is linked to Gulf terminals. Turkish authorities have often mentioned the possibility of extending the Iraq-Turkey pipeline from Kirkuk to Basra. Lack of political harmony in Iraq has, however, not helped the initiative become a reality. In March 2023 the pipeline was shut because Turkey was accused of permitting the Kurdistan regional government to export illegal oil. However, the ongoing Hormuz crisis has once again compelled Iraq to revamp its oil field.

D. The Middle Corridor

It is a land-based trade route between China and Europe via the Caucasus and Türkiye. The project has been given a new sense of urgency in the backdrop of the persistence of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The possible reopening of the previously closed land border between Türkiye and Armenia is a key part of the strategy. It would open a direct land route between Türkiye and Azerbaijan via Armenian land. This path is a component of a larger US-led project dubbed the Trump Route to International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP).

Perils and Pitfalls

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the ever-increasing volatility in the region have no doubt made the regional entities realize that alternative energy trade routes must either be explored or be revamped as soon as possible. This has given rise to the energy corridor politics whereby different states are supporting different projects, as per their national interests. Turkey is thus trying to position itself as the central energy transit hub of the region. The aforementioned projects that Turkey is eyeing are faced with political and economic challenges. And no suitable alternative to feed Europe exists in the near term except those of Russian supplies.

In the same manner, there are also conflicts between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan concerning the Caspian Sea, which must be sorted out before embarking on any cooperative endeavor. Likewise, the Qatar-Turkey program also encounters certain difficulties. Currently, Qatar is selling its LNG to other countries independently. Going into any cooperation will mean Qatar’s reliance on other members. Moreover, there will also be constant coordination needed among Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, and Turkey, which is overly optimistic considering the present condition.

The case of the Iraq-Turkey pipeline is also confronted with indigenous issues, including a power struggle between the Iraqi government and independent Kurds. Moreover, Iraq also lacks the resources to take care of this proposed pipeline. The project might require billions of dollars, and the project may have to go to foreign lenders in search of loans. Similarly, the newly established transit route — the TRIPP by the Trump administration —ceasesto be an inflection point. It is quite evident that the nature of the Trump administration’s mediation and peace agreements is fragile and tactical. As the already existing trade routes are still facing serious obstacles, this nascent corridor would remain symbolic and inoperative.

Moreover, the damage to various gas and oil facilities during the ongoing Iran war has impeded the energy supplies, which would require 5-8 years to recover even if peace is achieved. What the world is now witnessing is a surge in Russian energy supplies, in particular to the Asia-Pacific region. Amidst the ongoing hostilities in the Middle East, the US is forced to lift sanctions on Russian oil and gas, allowing the federation to provide the energy-choked world with its premium energy products. Whether it’s the passage, cost, or time, Russian-sponsored energy routes remain vital to the European appetite.

Conclusion

As a Eurasian country, Turkey has multiple options to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, but either the regional entities or resource constraints have diminished the Turkish dream. In a bid to become an energy hub, Turkey is not only escaping existing Russian routes but also those of Gulf nations such as KSA’s East-West Pipeline. Nevertheless, volatility in the region, the existence of violent non-state actors, financial limitations, and political instability in countries such as Iraq, Syria, etc., have ceased these projects. The uncertainty has been further enhanced by the growing enmity between Israel and Turkey. Therefore, only the Russian energy supplies remained the shortest, safest, and cheapest for Europe and now the Asia-Pacific.

Taut Bataut is a researcher and writer that publishes on South Asian geopolitics