Latifa Housseiny
Hezbollah thwarted the enemy’s assessments and expectations. For 15 months, it believed that the resistance had weakened- if not completely ended-and continued to present this as the conclusion of the 66-day war in 2024.
After the more than two-month war, many Zionist officials concluded that the region was now in their pocket, particularly the Lebanese arena. “We pushed Hezbollah decades backward,” “the party is no longer what it was before the war,” and “its leadership and infrastructure were severely struck”- these were the headlines Benjamin Netanyahu declared after announcing the November 2024 agreement. Yet the most important part of his remarks was that “Israel” was in a ceasefire with Hezbollah, not at the end of the war.
In contrast, the speech of Hezbollah Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem spoke openly and without ambiguity about the recovery and reconstruction of the resistance’s military body. Details of the process were not disclosed, but work was proceeding at full speed. Meanwhile, the enemy continued escalating daily strikes and targeting operations in the south and across various regions.
On March 2, after tensions reached a breaking point, and after the enemy massed its forces along the Lebanese border simultaneously with the start of its war against Iran, the resistance decided it would no longer remain silent. It launched rockets toward the occupied north, and the Zionists began their campaign against all of Lebanon.
The first reaction inside the entity was shock following the resistance’s launch of six rockets. The “Israeli” assessment had not anticipated such a move; expectations were that Hezbollah would refrain from any confrontation because it was “deterred, defeated, and lacking any military capability, especially after the fall of Syria.”
The confrontation quickly escalated, with the resistance’s military operations intensifying day by day- increasing in number and in the use of guided and advanced rockets, shells, and drones- alongside expanding ranges and deeper strikes inside the entity and its settlements, as well as close-range clashes and the planting of explosive devices.
How Did the Enemy Receive the Shock of the False Narrative of Hezbollah’s Collapse?
Thus, in the ongoing confrontation with the enemy, Hezbollah imposed the equation of “evacuation for evacuation,” targeting the depth of the northern region. Based on this reality, more than one official, writer, analyst, and military correspondent within the entity acknowledged that the intelligence assessment in Tel Aviv had been mistaken and that the party had rapidly restored its capabilities. This was reported by “Israel’s” Channel 13 at the beginning of the war, citing a Zionist official. However, the clearest statement came from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu himself on the 14th day of the war, when he admitted his failure to prevent the growth of Hezbollah’s capabilities. He noted that estimates had indicated Hezbollah possessed around 150,000 rockets and shells before the war-an arsenal that could have caused widespread destruction in cities such as “Tel Aviv”, with the potential for between 15,000 and 20,000 fatalities in a war scenario. At the same time, he acknowledged that the party’s capabilities had not been completely eliminated.
“They Are Selling Us Illusions”
Nadav Eyal, a political analyst at Yedioth Ahronoth, expressed the prevailing “Israeli” viewpoint following the outbreak of the battle, stating that “Hezbollah’s resilience exposes the limits of ‘Israeli’ military strategy,” and arguing that recent “successes” had created the illusion that Hezbollah could be quickly paralyzed.
He quoted a former senior security official within the entity as saying that “the renewal of fighting with Hezbollah highlights a deeper strategic misunderstanding within the security establishment and the government,” noting that “they are selling the public illusions. The current security establishment and the government did not fully understand the foundations upon which the ‘successes’ of the war in the south and the north were built. This same misunderstanding now forms the basis of the mistakes being made regarding Hezbollah.”
According to the official, the central illusion lies in the belief that a new decisive strike could quickly cripple the party. The idea that there could be one major blow that would end the matter-or another strike from which it would not recover-is not how strategy works. Rather, a complete system of measures tied to a clear objective must be prepared and activated at a time chosen by oneself, not by the enemy.
Eyal further explained that political leaders in “Israel” were frustrated and had sent signals through media briefings suggesting that the “Israeli” army had been surprised by Hezbollah’s response, having expected only limited participation.
Within the army, these claims are viewed as an attempt to shift blame onto the General Staff.
Senior Zionist military officials say that assessments regarding Hezbollah’s recovery-and the stronger-than-expected performance of its leadership structure, including the party’s Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem-had already been conveyed to political leaders and to the public over the past year.
Accordingly, he concluded that Hezbollah demonstrated capabilities stronger than expected, even compared to estimates within the military establishment itself.
Misjudgment
For his part, political analyst Nahum Barnea of “Yedioth Ahronoth” argued that “‘Israel’ and the United States misjudged the reaction of Iran and Hezbollah, as both remain resilient and continue to respond with fire. More importantly, they have reached the conclusion that the worst is already behind them.”
“The Government Deceived Us”
Omer Bar-Lev, former commander of the General Staff’s elite Sayeret Matkal unit, a Labor Party Knesset member, and former Minister of Public Security, stressed that “Iran and Hezbollah succeeded, within just a few months, in rebuilding a significant portion of the military capabilities that we had neutralized in the previous round, and they did not hesitate to direct them against us.”
He acknowledged that “the reality is complex, and the ‘Israeli’ government-which misled the public regarding military achievements against Hezbollah and Iran, ignores the residents of the north, allocates billions of shekels in its budget as coalition funds, and remains incapable of passing an equal conscription law for all its ‘citizens’-will continue to mislead the public.” He concluded: “We will not achieve total victory, and Hezbollah will not disappear.”
“Hezbollah Retained Its Strength”
Reserve Brigadier General Guy Hazut affirmed that “Hezbollah has retained most of its military strength and, over the course of a year and a half, has managed to restore some of its capabilities and self-confidence.” He added that “the gap between declarations about Hezbollah’s defeat at the end of Operation ‘Northern Arrows’ (the 2024 war) and the current reality—in which Hezbollah is able to launch dozens of rockets and drones every day-has led to public criticism and calls to exploit Operation ‘Roar of the Eagle’ [the ongoing war against Iran) to defeat Hezbollah once and for all.”
Hezbollah “Has ‘Israel’ by the Neck”
“Hezbollah has ‘Israel’ by the "neck-this was the conclusion reached by Zionist military analyst Avi Ashkenazi, who noted that the party had spent the past year and a half rebuilding and rehabilitating its capabilities in southern Lebanon.
Illusory Victories
Former head of the Operations Directorate in the “Israeli” occupation army, Israel Ziv, asserted that “in contrast to stories of illusory victories, Hamas has regained strength in Gaza, Hezbollah continues fighting and paralyzing both the north and the center, and Iran continues launching missiles in the third round.”
The Return of Guerrilla Warfare
In another article, Ziv confirmed that the infrastructure established by Hezbollah remains partially intact and is still being used, while the organization itself has changed. It is no longer what it was a year ago. After the strikes it endured, it shifted from a “semi-regular army” model back to guerrilla warfare. It has reduced its visibility and now operates through small cells, relying on precise knowledge of the terrain. Its method depends on ambushes and rapid strikes rather than direct army-to-army confrontation-it searches for opportunities. He added, “This is where the problem lies: the more you expand deployment and deepen incursions, the more opportunities you give it. It needs only a small number of cells to carry out painful attacks.”
Political, Not Military, Assessments
According to Channel 12’s northern correspondent Guy Varon, Hezbollah will neither be defeated nor disarmed at the end of this “campaign.” The security and military establishment bases its assessments on a political track that is currently unavailable. More importantly, the political leadership in “Israel” does not clearly explain to residents or public opinion what is happening in the north, limiting itself to saying that the battle will be long-and that is all that is being offered.
More Shock
“Haaretz”, days after the start of the battle, reported that Hezbollah had recovered faster than expected, quoting senior political officials in the enemy entity who said they were “surprised” by Hezbollah’s capabilities. Channel 12 likewise reported, citing a Zionist security source, that Hezbollah had widely redeployed its rocket launch platforms in ways that make them difficult to target.
Hezbollah Has Not Disintegrated
Zionist military analyst Avi Issacharoff also stated that “Hezbollah’s Secretary-General succeeded in remaining the primary decision-maker and in preserving the chain of command and control,” adding that “Hezbollah shows no signs of disintegration or collapse. In recent days, Radwan Force fighters have managed to deploy south of the Litani River and continue attempts to set ambushes for ‘Israeli’ forces there.”
All of the above underscores the element of surprise that Hezbollah managed to impose in this ongoing battle. Circles within the enemy continue to speak of this success and to build their reading of the war upon it-a war that, so far, has granted neither Netanyahu nor his army victory or military advancement, but rather a solid barrier against the project of occupation and control over Lebanese geography, particularly the south. The surprise represented by the resistance’s combat capability-missiles reaching their targets, the preservation of an effective leadership structure, and the organized and increasingly impactful management of the battle-indicates that the collapse “Israel” spoke about for 15 months never occurred at any moment.
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