By Ben Norton
Iran is winning the war started by Trump. This is now admitted even in the Western media. Tehran has destroyed major US military bases in West Asia, expelling American troops to Europe.
It is now clear that Iran is winning this war.
The Donald Trump administration has failed to carry out regime change or state collapse. The Iranian government has proven to be resilient.
Tehran has used asymmetric tactics to defend itself, targeting the weak points of the US empire and exacting a heavy price on its military, economy, and allies.
In fact, Iran has successfully destroyed the US military bases in West Asia, forcing many American troops out of the region. The Pentagon is primarily waging this war from bases in Europe.
Western media admits Iran is winning the war
The fact that Iran is winning the war is even being admitted by major Western media outlets.
The British newspaper The Independent printed an article titled “Iran is the clear winner as Trump’s desperate bid for peace shows he wants out of the war”.
Politico published an op-ed arguing that the “war against Iran is a far bigger strategic error” than the US invasion of Iraq in 2003.
Ironically, this article was written by the former US ambassador to NATO, Ivo Daalder, who had previously supported the war on Iraq.
Most US media outlets helped to promote the George W. Bush administration’s invasion of Iraq, which blatantly violated international law. In fact, the corporate press has supported every major US war for decades, including the wars in Korea, Vietnam, Yugoslavia, Iraq (twice), Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Yemen, the list goes on and on.
This is the first major US war in decades that the Western media is criticizing from the very beginning.
So the writing is on the wall. It is clear to everyone that this conflict is a disaster, and Iran is winning.
Foreign Affairs is the official publication of the Council on Foreign Relations, whose members are a veritable Who’s Who of the US ruling class. Yet even Foreign Affairs published an article acknowledging that Iran is winning this war.
The author of the essay, Narges Bajoghli, is a professor at the prestigious Johns Hopkins University, which is a significant recruiting ground for the US State Department.
Bajoghli wrote the following in Foreign Affairs (all emphasis added):
Judging by the metrics of conventional conflict, Iran is not faring well against the United States and Israel. Its adversaries are destroying crucial targets in Iran, killing its commanders and degrading its military assets. But these are the wrong measures for assessing Iran’s position in the war. The right measure is not even an assessment of whether Iran is absorbing punishment well—which it is. The question that will matter when the fighting ends is whether Tehran is achieving its strategic objectives. And on that count, Iran is winning.
This outcome is not accidental. Tehran has been preparing for this war for nearly four decades, since the new revolutionary government faced its first major military test in the Iran-Iraq War, which lasted from 1980 to 1988. And it is now executing a strategy that has managed to neutralize key U.S. and Israeli air defense batteries, severely damage U.S. military bases in the Persian Gulf, inflict substantial economic pain, and drive a wedge between the United States and its Gulf allies. The Iranian regime, in other words, is not just surviving the U.S. and Israeli bombardment. The serious economic and political problems it is creating for its adversaries are, on a strategic level, giving Iran the upper hand.
Iran’s strategic objectives in the war
To assess if Iran is winning the war, it is necessary to analyze Tehran’s goals.
The first and most obvious strategic objective of Iran has been to prevent regime change and state collapse.
The Trump administration initially thought it could overthrow the Iranian government by carrying out so-called decapitation strikes, assassinating its senior political and military leaders.
Nevertheless, Washington has failed to orchestrate regime change. In fact, the Iranian government has not only shown that it is resilient; it has probably become even stronger now, because it has more popular legitimacy.
Many Iranians who were critical of the Islamic Republic have rallied behind the flag and are supporting the state, to prevent the US from taking control of their country (and exploiting its oil, natural resources, and other lucrative natural resources).
More than 850 public demonstrations were held in Iran in support of the government in the first month of the US-Israeli war.
Iran destroyed US military bases
A longtime strategic goal of Iran has been to expel the US military from West Asia.
The US surrounded Iran with roughly two dozen military bases, which were developed over decades.
In response to the US-Israeli war of aggression, Iran has pummeled most of these bases in the Persian Gulf.
Iran launched at least 5,471 missile and drone attacks against the US and its allies in the first month of the war, according to official data compiled by Turkish state media outlet the Anadolu Agency.
These Iranian attacks have been remarkably successful.
In fact, the New York Times reported that the US military has essentially been pushed out of West Asia (a more accurate term for the Middle East).
“Many of the 13 military bases in the region used by American troops are all but uninhabitable”, the Times wrote in an article titled “Iran’s Attacks Force U.S. Troops to Work Remotely”.
Among the US facilities that have been severely damaged is the Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which is the biggest US base in West Asia; as well as the headquarters of the Navy’s Fifth Fleet in Bahrain.
The major US newspaper reported the following:
Iran has bombed U.S. bases across the Middle East in retaliation for the U.S.-Israeli war, forcing many American troops to relocate to hotels and office spaces throughout the region, according to military personnel and American officials.
So now much of the land-based military is, in essence, fighting the war while working remotely, with the exception of fighter pilots and crews operating and maintaining warplanes and conducting strikes.
Before Trump launched this war of aggression on February 28, the US had approximately 40,000 troops in the region. In the first month of the war, thousands of these US forces were sent to Europe.
The American troops that remain in West Asia have been relocated to “makeshift” and “alternative” sites, off base, the Times reported.
Critics have pointed out that, given that US soldiers are waging war on Iran from hotels and office spaces, this means the Pentagon is essentially using civilians in these areas as human shields.
US military is waging war on Iran from bases in Europe
In short, Iran has largely succeeded in expelling the US military occupiers from West Asia.
This fact was further confirmed by an article in the Wall Street Journal titled “Europe Is Quietly Playing a Crucial Role in the Iran War”.
The newspaper reported:
While many European leaders have publicly decried the U.S. attacks on Iran, behind the scenes their military bases are facilitating one of the most logistically complex operations the U.S. military has been involved in for decades.
In recent weeks, U.S. bombers, drones and ships have been fueled, armed and launched via bases in the U.K., Germany, Portugal, Italy, France and Greece, officials say.
Attack drones are being directed from a sprawling U.S. base at Ramstein in Germany, the nerve center of America’s operations against Iran, according to German and U.S. officials. Heavy B-1 bombers have been photographed loading munitions and fuel at RAF Fairford in the U.K. The USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, is currently docked at a naval base in Crete to undergo repairs after suffering damage from a fire.
U.S. Air Force Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s top military commander, said in recent Senate testimony that most European allies “have been extremely supportive.”
The continent, which is home to around 40 U.S. military bases and 80,000 U.S. service personnel, is a launchpad for U.S. operations in both the Middle East and Africa. “The distances are shorter, it’s less expensive, and it’s much easier to project power with our network of bases and allies,” he said.
There are two major takeaways from this report.
Firstly, some European governments have publicly criticized the US war on Iran, acknowledging that it violated international law and constitutes an illegal war of aggression. However, behind the scenes, most EU states and the UK are helping Washington wage this war, allowing the Pentagon to use their territory to attack Tehran. Europe is therefore a party to the conflict.
Secondly, Iran has succeeded in destroying the major US military bases in West Asia and expelling most American troops from the region.
This is one of several reasons why it is clear that Tehran is winning this war.
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