Few in the region are shocked by Ankara’s quiet participation in a US-led push to dismantle Hamas. What matters now is how far Erdogan is willing to go to prove his usefulness to Washington – at the expense of the Palestinian resistance.
The Cradle
On 23 September, Trump laid out his plan to end the war, calling on world leaders to “stop the war in Gaza immediately.” A week later, accompanied by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he presented a 20-point roadmap to the world. Netanyahu was also prompted to apologize to the Qatari leadership for his failed 9 September attempt to target Hamas leaders in Doha, while also expressing regret for the killing of a Qatari security officer.
Major non-NATO ally (MNNA), Qatar, has re-emerged as the designated mediator tasked with restoring “stability” to Gaza. Alongside Egypt, it has presented a proposal that effectively demands Hamas dismantle itself. But another state's role is becoming increasingly visible: NATO member Turkiye.
Following Trump's announcement, Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari highlighted Turkiye's involvement and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin’s participation in the Doha meetings. According to sources, a lengthy session was held in Doha between Hamas leaders and Qatari, Egyptian, and Turkish officials to review the plan and explore possible amendments. In its latest response, Hamas said that “the group still needed time to study a plan for Gaza,” confirming to mediators that consultations remain ongoing.
Netanyahu’s primary goal since the beginning of the war has been to eliminate Hamas. Sitting right beside Trump, Erdogan kept his criticism of Israel’s war on Gaza to remarks at the UN General Assembly. Now, as the fault lines of Trump’s plan to redesign Gaza take shape, Turkiye's likely role in this US-Israeli project is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
Arab consensus and the Gaza redesign
The joint Israeli-American plan has two primary aims: a Gaza Strip without Hamas and a civilian administration that will not obstruct western interests. If Hamas accepts the plan, its leaders will be forced to leave Gaza, which will then be opened up for international investment. The reconstruction of the strip and exploitation of its offshore gas fields are seen as highly lucrative opportunities.
Arab states have largely accepted Washington’s “solution.” Unlike Erdogan, many of them view Hamas as part of the problem. The Saudi–Egyptian–Emirati bloc, which has previously clashed with Turkiye and Qatar over the Muslim Brotherhood, would welcome any move toward Hamas’s elimination.
Just after Trump's plan was revealed, the foreign ministers of Turkiye, Jordan, the UAE, Indonesia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt issued a joint statement expressing “confidence in the US's will to find a path to peace.”
While Qatar officially described Trump’s plan as “constructive but needing negotiation,” Erdogan praised Trump’s “effort and leadership,” adding, “Turkiye will continue to contribute to the process to achieve a just and lasting peace acceptable to all parties.”
According to Axios, citing two sources involved in the talks, Turkiye – alongside Qatar and Egypt – has urged Hamas to accept the deal. This move is expected to increase pressure on the resistance movement, which reportedly requires a consensus with all other Palestinian factions in Gaza before issuing an official response.
Turkiye’s entanglement with Trump and the US
As the plan is set in motion, the political risks are being assumed by Turkiye and Qatar, both of which appear willing to carry the burden.
Qatar's proximity to Washington and the Persian Gulf monarchies is well-established. Hamas leaders have been based in Doha with tacit regional approval since abandoning Damascus in 2012. In Turkiye, however, the debate centers on how Erdogan will position himself. While an Israeli strike on Turkish territory is implausible, political assassinations remain a serious concern.
So, what will determine Erdogan’s policy on Palestine? The key lies in relations with Washington. Outcomes from his recent visit to the White House suggest Erdogan’s hands are tied.
Turkiye is grappling with one of the most severe economic crises in its history. Erdogan has so far managed to stave off collapse, but the worsening situation weakens his hand internationally.
Domestically, Erdogan faces political uncertainty. His crackdown on rivals has intensified, but the use of state power has failed to yield the stability he seeks. Before Erdogan's visit to Washington, former US ambassador to Turkiye and Syria Envoy Tom Barrack, speaking at the 2025 Concordia Annual Summit, remarked, “President Trump says … let’s give them [the Erdogan government] what they need … legitimacy.” Ankara chose not to respond to this condescension.
Just as Trump returned from the Persian Gulf in May with hundreds of billions of dollars in investment deals, Erdogan’s Oval Office visit included a package deal: 225 Boeing passenger jets, a US–Turkiye LNG agreement undermining ties with Russia, and even a nuclear energy memorandum. But unlike the Persian Gulf states, can Turkiye afford to spend so lavishly in the US?
Could Erdogan defy Trump on Gaza as he has on Syria? Does he even have room to maneuver?
No checks on Netanyahu
It is increasingly clear that no mechanism exists to halt Trump and Netanyahu. Western capitals – silent through more than a century of dispossession, from Balfour to today – have suddenly lined up to recognize a Palestinian state, a gesture devoid of substance.
Like the Arab monarchies, western states envision a Palestine without Hamas or other resistance factions. They prefer a “passive” leadership like Mahmoud Abbas’s long-expired Palestinian Authority (PA).
Even this is too much for Israel. While the ageing Abbas’s legitimacy is disputed even among Palestinians, Trump has now conjured a “Peace Council” for Gaza, featuring none other than former British Prime Minister Tony Blair – a man synonymous with modern West Asia’s devastation, chiefly the illegal US-UK-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.
If Trump's Gaza plan is implemented, Palestine will effectively be governed by a US–Israel–UK axis, recalling the days of the British Mandate. Those endorsing this formula include the Arab states seeking favor with Trump – and Erdogan, who is eager to reset ties with Washington.
Erdogan’s actual record on Palestine remains contested. Given his historic support for the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, his potential role in dismantling the movement is an ironic turn.
Following Trump’s announcement, a key question emerges: Do Erdogan’s declarations on Palestine resonate in Arab and western capitals, or even among Palestinians and Hamas?
When a ceasefire briefly took hold in January 2025, Abu Obeida, former military spokesperson for the Qassam Brigades, thanked the resistance groups in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen –highlighting Hezbollah, Ansarallah, and only one state actor: Iran. The Sanaa government in Yemen lacks international legitimacy, despite governing the country’s most densely populated provinces.
Western states have also shown no interest in involving Turkiye as a mediator on Palestine. Post-war negotiations have focused on Egypt and Qatar, partly because Turkiye is seen as having taken sides too openly.
Erdogan’s diplomacy has long involved engagement not just with states, but with organizations and individuals. Hamas is one such group, and is now being treated as a negotiable entity in regional diplomacy. The real question is: How valuable is Turkiye’s influence over Hamas in the current context?
Turkiye may be asked to facilitate Hamas’s compliance – not by securing its place at the table, but by helping relocate its leadership.
Trump issued a blunt ultimatum that Hamas has “three or four days” to respond to his latest peace plan. “Hamas is either going to be doing it or not, and if it’s not, it’s going to be a very sad end,” he added.
Trump and Netanyahu are preparing for every outcome. They seem to have chosen Turkiye to provide Hamas with an exit route – and Erdogan appears to have accepted this task as part of his recent White House dealings.
Back in February 2025, Erdogan declared, “The proposals put forward by the new American administration regarding Gaza with the pressure of the Zionist lobby have nothing worth considering or discussing from our perspective.”
That stance now seems to have changed after his Washington visit.
Erdogan was criticized by the Turkish opposition for failing to defend the Sumud Flotilla like Spain did. He now appears poised to promote “peace” rhetoric and a more centrist path. A recent cooperation deal between Turkiye and UNRWA raises questions: Will it involve relocating Hamas leaders or other Palestinians to Turkiye? If Trump’s plan is implemented, how many Hamas officials or Palestinians will Turkiye absorb, and what measures will Ankara take to contain them?
Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, speaking on Tuesday during the talks and Trump’s plan, said “the details of which need to be discussed.” He did not clarify which of the 20 points were up for discussion.
For Qatar, the key issue is not how Gaza will be governed or how Palestinians will live, but who will shelter Hamas’s displaced leadership – and whether Qatar will have to take them in again. For those seeking to reduce the Palestinian cause to the fate of Hamas, Gaza has become a liability. In this new reality, Turkiye seems ready to “look to the future.”
Ankara is now focusing on three key areas: rebuilding Gaza, securing a role in any post-war governing body, and accepting Hamas leaders onto its territory – potentially as bargaining chips later down the line.
Meanwhile, Erdogan hopes to consolidate domestic power, advance his objectives in Syria, and preserve the role of key figures like former Al-Qaeda commander-turned-president, Ahmad al-Shara. All paths now lead through the White House. Though the Palestinian cause may still carry ideological weight for Erdogan, he appears ready to accept realities on the ground.
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