Israel, US roll out plan for attack on Iran

Armoured vehicles of the Iraqi Counter Terrorism Forces are deployed outside the US embassy building in Baghdad yesterday, as Washington moved non-essential staff from bases in the region following US media reports that Israel appeared to be preparing an attack on Iran. AFP

• If war breaks out, the obvious target for both adversaries will be each other’s nuclear facilities, resulting in an environmental catastrophe—not just for Iran and Israel, but for the entire region

The developments in the past few days indicate an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities is imminent. The United States is not any more putting diplomatic pressure on Israel to restrain itself. The US stance seems to give a green light for the attack. If war breaks out, before long it will become a joint US-Israeli campaign against Iran.

On Wednesday, the US ordered the non-essential staff to leave its embassy in Iraq on security concerns. It also ordered a reduction of staff in its missions and bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. These staff reductions aimed at minimising the damage in a likely Iranian retaliation are a subtle warning to Iran about an imminent Israeli attack. They also come days ahead of the next round of talks between the US and Iran on Sunday and after a 40-minute phone call US President Donald Trump had with Israel’s Prime Minister and war crimes suspect Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss Israel’s war plans. 

Weeks ago, the United States was seen to be more pacifist and appeared to be running out of patience with Netanyahu. However, today we see either total capitulation or a return to the default setting—where it is Israel that calls the shots, rather than the democratically elected government in Washington. D.C.

Weeks ago, the United States successfully negotiated with Hamas and obtained the release of an Israeli-American hostage and started talks with Iran over the nuclear programme, disregarding Israeli opposition to these moves.

But today, the Trump administration has made an about-turn, and it only underscores the political reality that no US president—not even self-absorbed Donald Trump—can defy Israel and survive.

What caused the sudden change of stance? Was it sex blackmail? Given Trump’s history of promiscuity, this possibility is highly plausible. What gave the game away was billionaire businessman Elon Musk’s social media video post this week. Posted after a tiff between Trump and Musk, the video showed Trump partying with cheer girls in the company of high-society sex-orgy organiser Jeffrey Epstein. 

Many analysts, including former Israeli intelligence officials, strongly believe that Epstein was an Israeli intelligence asset. He ran a honey trap scheme to enable Israel to blackmail prominent world leaders. He was arrested after a brave mother of a young girl he abused complained to police. He was jailed, but he committed suicide in a high-security prison amid reports that he was about to reveal the list of his VIP clientele.

Just as the mystery surrounding John F. Kennedy’s assassination was buried when the killer was himself killed by another man who later conveniently died in prison of cancer, the Epstein scandal was similarly suppressed by his prison death, which we are asked to accept as suicide.

“Donald Trump is in the Epstein files. That is the real reason they have not been made public… Mark this post for the future. The truth will come out,” Musk wrote in his X post.

One never knows whether the policy change was connected to Israeli blackmailing of Trump. Blackmailing and threats are tools of Israeli foreign policy strategy. The judges and prosecutors of the International Criminal Court and International Court of Justice will vouch for that.

The Trump administration’s policy shift from apparent pacifism to the adoption of Israel’s hawkish agenda does not bode well for the Middle East. The US-Iran nuclear talks were making progress, albeit painfully slowly, but not without generating hopes. With a few more rounds of talks, the two sides could have reached a compromise that might have led to the US relaxing crippling sanctions on Iran, providing a major boost to Iran’s sluggish economy. 

But scuttling hopes, Trump went public, calling on Iran to completely abandon its nuclear programme, prompting Iran to insist that it has the right to pursue a peaceful nuclear programme. In a hard-hitting speech, Iran’s spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said last week Iran would, under no circumstances, abandon its right to a nuclear programme. He added the US nuclear proposal contradicted Iran’s belief in self-reliance and the principle of ‘We Can’.

On Wednesday, Trump said he was growing less confident that a nuclear deal would be reached.

Amid Israeli plans to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, the next round of talks scheduled for Sunday is now in doubt. 

On Wednesday, Iran’s Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh warned his country would target US military bases in the region in the event of a US attack. 

If war breaks out and Israel targets Iran’s nuclear facilities for destruction, Iran is sure to hit back with all its might. According to military experts, Iran, after its military confrontation with Israel last year, has accrued vital information about weaknesses of Israel’s so-called Iron Dome. Also this week, reports from Teheran said Iran has obtained a treasure trove of confidential information about Israel’s nuclear programme. 

If war breaks out, the obvious target for both adversaries will be each other’s nuclear facilities, resulting in an environmental catastrophe—not just for Iran and Israel, but for the entire region. Even countries like Sri Lanka will not be spared from the war’s environmental, if not economic, consequences. 

Already, the news of a plan for attack has shot up the oil prices by four per cent. Further hikes are inevitable if the tensions continue to grow. 

But the bigger issue is the radioactive fallout. Iran has strategically located its nuclear plants across the country, and they are well protected by anti-air systems. 

If Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant—located in southwestern Iran near the Persian Gulf—is attacked, it could result in a radioactive leak comparable to Chernobyl or Fukushima, potentially engulfing all the Gulf countries.

In a recent interview, Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al-Thani said that if the Bushehr plant were bombed, countries in the region would face a severe food and water crisis due to radioactive contamination. Attacks on nuclear facilities and their aftermath could also trigger an exodus of migrant workers from the Gulf countries, delivering a crushing blow to the economies of labour-exporting countries like Sri Lanka.

Similarly, an Iranian attack on an Israeli nuclear plant will expose not only Israeli citizens to radioactive hazards but also people of Palestine, Egypt, Syria and Jordan. 

Given this apocalyptic scenario, should the US and Israel proceed with their war plans to uphold Israel’s nuclear dominance in the region? If Israel can possess nuclear weapons, why shouldn’t Iran? One hopes that all this war hysteria is merely a Trump strategy to gain concessions in the ongoing talks with Iran—and not a real threat, much like his much-hyped tariff war.

Israel seeks war and has been unnerved by Iran’s remarkable advances in uranium enrichment. Yesterday, the International Atomic Energy Agency passed a resolution condemning what it described as Iran’s lack of cooperation in site supervision. Israel is likely to seize on this resolution to beat the war drum against Iran and set a trap for the Trump administration to join the attack.